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Very difficult to tell indeed. Sometimes dirndls are influenced by fashion an you can get clues from that, but this one is a particularly traditional style that changed little over the years, and the size 38 was around since the 1950s or so. What are the bust and waist measurements? German sizing did change over the years, 38 was once the smallest misses' size but not anymore as it now goes down to 34 and even 32, so measurements might be an indicator.